Analytical review. Weekly 20.09.2021
At the beginning of last week, we witnessed an increase in the total crypto market capitalization by 10% to 2.2T USD, after which there was a lateral movement throughout the week. It’s notable that when we were writing the report, capitalization has dropped quite sharply to 1.9T USD.
The BTC rate also gained 10% at the beginning of last week and reached 48,000 USD. It also traded in a lateral for 46,000 USD — 48,000 USD. When we were writing the report, there was a sharp drop in the rate to 43,500 USD.
The ETH price showed similar growth, but the subsequent decline was more notable. There was a 15% increase with a sequential decline. When we were writing the report, the price has dropped to 3,000 USD.
In the dynamics of cash flows between exchanges and private addresses among stablecoins, USDT remains to be a confident dominant.
Comparing to last week, ETH is being withdrawn less and more often local price highs are used to exchange for stablecoins. As for BTC, its exchange rates have drastically dropped.
At the beginning of the week, we could see a recovery in open interest in the BTC futures market.
Unfortunately, interest in ETH could not recover and by the end of the week, it has shown a downward trend.
Another application for the Bitcoin ETF came this week to SEC from Bitwise (a company that provides services in the field of asset management and financial advisory). However, the application was submitted not for a classic, but for a “futures” ETF, obviously in the hope of being approved.
Recently, two unconfirmed rumors have cropped up saying that Ripple and Coinbase launched free international transfers in USDC. Is it a coincidence or is such a product will be a part of the market in the nearest future? Speaking about Ripple, we would like to remind you that the company’s CEO has previously spoken about IPO, which is planned to be conducted right after all of the processes with SEC will be finished.
Coinbase has applied to become a registered futures trader to the National Futures Association (NFA). If Coinbase gets approval from the National Futures Association, it will need to register in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to receive the green light. At this point, the exchange will not stop and will move on to the introduction of other instruments: options and indices.
As part of the next Sotherby’s auction, participants will be given the opportunity to pay for the lot, which is an exclusive diamond necklace from Harry Willson in cryptocurrency (BTC, ETH, or USDC) via Coinbase Commerce.
European institutions are also showing interest in cryptocurrencies. CACEIS, a major European bank providing custody and asset management services owned by Crédit Agricole and Banco Santander, is reported to be in the process of creating a cryptocurrency custody solution.
New measures were announced by the administration of the US President Joe Biden, aimed at combating hackers and money laundering. Officials say that the measures will be targeted, aimed solely at tracking down certain wallets. Nevertheless, they will bring a certain panic to the market.
Binance US is again under the regulators surveillance, this time over suspicions of insider trading. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced the presence of so-called “witnesses” with whom it is working. Representatives of the company declared a “strong intolerance” to such things.
Binance is still trying to improve relations with regulators. “We realized that we needed a centralized structure to work well with regulators,” said Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao.
According to the current analytical services nansen and theblockcrypto over the past week, the trading volume of NFT tokens is far from its August highs. At the same time, the trading volume of in-game NFT remained almost unchanged over this period of time and remained at the level of about 150m USD, the main changes were all around Art NFT.
When the leadership of the Art NFT Crypto Punks collection cannot be questioned (the current capitalization is about 1,000,000 ETH, while the nearest competitor — BoredApeYachtClub 444,096 ETH), the attention of traders and collectors is also attracted by new issues of NFT tokens.
The bulk of trading over the past week fell on Art Blocks (0xa7d8) — sets of different fragments, such as artwork. Crypto Punks take second place in terms of volume.
The nearest quarterly expiration date accounts for about 37% of the total open interest — 64,375 BTC. The weighted average price level is at around 44,000 — next to which, apparently, the market will be located before expiration.
The open interest for options with an execution date in December increased by 5.6% to 54,497 BTC. Calls accounted for a significantly larger portion of the gain, with the major levels being 100,000 and 200,000.
Due to the end of the third quarter of 2021, we are starting to track the dynamics of changes for the new execution date as of March 25, 2022 — the end of the first quarter. At the moment, the average equilibrium price between put and call options is around 50,000. The volume of open interest at the moment is 10,757 BTC. The main levels for put options are 20,000, 30,00, 40,000. For call options, 50,000, 70,000 and 100,000.
The volume of general interest on all execution dates increased by 3.2% and amounted to 176,227 BTC. Put options traded more actively than call options. The main traded strike was 50,000.
The volume of open interest for options with the expiration date on September 24 increased by 10% and was 451,985 ETH. The main gain was at 3200 strikes for both put and call options.
The volume of open interest for options with the expiration date on December 31 increased by 2% and amounted was 461,456 ETH. The main target for trading remains the target of 5,000, reflecting the continued positive sentiment in the medium term.
Similarly, with the BTC order book, we start tracking the new execution date — the end of the first quarter of 2022. At the moment, the size of the open interest is 156 447 ETH. Call options are 6 times more than put options, the main strike is 10,000.
The total size of all traded options increased by 3.4% and is 1,379,392 ETH. The main concentration level of traders’ interest is at around 3200 for call and put options, and 4000 and 5000 for call options.
In addition to the standard parameters of market analysis, such as the volume of open positions in futures and options available to a wide range of readers, under the new PRO MODE subheading, we provide an overview of a number of market parameters that require special expertise or experience.
MarkIV for short term BTC options (via Derebit&GVOL info)
The ratio of short-term put and call curves has changed in favor of put options. The stagnation of the rate last week, and the subsequent sharp decline in the rate at the beginning of the current week had a significant impact on the revaluation of medium-term (up to a month) risks of price movement. 36% (instead of 24% a week ago) as part of a short-term interest.
MarkIV for long term BTC options
In the long-term perspective, the recent sell-off was traded at the price of 43,000. Meanwhile, markets are becoming more cautious about future prospects and are beginning to adjust their mid-term (up to six months) growth expectations. This is largely due to the fact that buying call options is difficult due to the insufficient number of sellers, in contrast to traditional markets where there are no problems with this, which are solved by participation in trading of large pension and bank funds.
MarkIV for short term ETH options
Talking about the relation between BTC and ETH, short-term options for ETH traded more calmly. Despite the decline in the spot rate and the caution in choosing a trading strategy, call options of the upper price range were in the greatest demand.
MarkIV for long term ETH options
For options with a long-term execution date, there are remained growth expectations. After the EIP 1559 update, more than 300,000 ETH have already been burned, which quite strongly maintains the price and the optimistic sentiment regarding the price growth. At the moment, despite the depreciation, the target of 5,000 remains relevant and a breakout of this level may lead to a significant volatility surge.
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