Analytical review. Weekly 14.06.2021

Although the current level of consolidation is now in its third week, price movements have been quite active and upward on some days. At the end of the week, total crypto market capitalization was unchanged at USD 1.674 trillion, largely due to an 8% increase over the weekend.

BTC prices, as the main indicator of the overall market situation, made two consecutive jumps of 22% and 14% after reaching a local low and a strong resistance level at USD 32 000. At the end of the week’s trading, the price rose 9% to 39 200 USD. The dynamics of ETH was different again, but not for the better this time. Despite an 8% gain over the last two days, the cryptocurrency fell by 7.8% over the week to USD 2 500.

The movement of funds between wallets of exchanges, smart contracts and private owners follows the paradigm formed last week. The consolidation of BTC and USDT on Binance, together with continued supply shortages on other exchanges and against the backdrop of the main cryptocurrency rising, could signal big deals in the OTC market. Perhaps after this interest is realized, global market makers will continue to accumulate BTC, allowing the market to resume growth.

In last week’s review we mentioned that the direction of movement will depend on the news. Given the large amount of positive news last week and the active reaction of traders, there is reason to believe that the uptrend will continue this week.

The cautious optimism on the part of market participants was reflected in the dynamics of open positions in BTC futures. After falling from the highs of May, the market remained under the pressure of uncertainty for quite some time, which corresponded to low trading volumes. However, in the last few days, activity has picked up, indicating a return of risk appetite among traders. Moreover, ETH trades are lagging in this indicator, which could also be an indirect sign of the next stage of crypto market growth — usually the main cryptocurrency grows first, while altcoin price dynamics remain catching up.

The past week has been full of news related to global cryptocurrency regulation. Following events at the Miami Crypto Forum, the president of El Salvador made a proposal to legalize ВTC as a means of payment in the country to make it more convenient for those citizens who are working in the US to transfer money. In the end, this was made possible by a law passed by the country’s parliament. At the same time, the Texas financial authorities allowed local banks to organize a vault for crypto assets, paving the way for full legislative recognition of cryptocurrencies Britain’s Central Bank governor described the recognition of digital money as one of the biggest innovations in central banking history. Separate major news for the entire market is the recognition of cryptocurrencies by BIS, the Bank of International Settlements, that issued recommendations to treat crypto assets as high-risk investments and make adequate reserves. In parallel, BIS, together with the French and Swiss central banks, will participate in the testing of cross-border transfers. Major banks such as UBS, Credit Suisse, and Natixis will also be involved in the program.

US cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase has released a statement announcing that it merges with an investment pension savings provider 401(k) — ForUsAll. Although it is not a very big company, it is the first deal in the multi-trillion-dollar corporate insurance market. It will allow employees of participating companies to invest up to 5% of the funds in their accounts into cryptocurrency.

Also, one of the central pieces of news that made perhaps the biggest contribution to the optimism of the week was final ballot on the Bitcoin network Taproot update activation. The launch of the update will probably improve the scalability, security, and functionality of the network.

Looking at the market from a more strategic perspective (cyclical price), the current situation has all the prerequisites to be the start of the new growth phase that many investors and traders have been waiting for. Given that we are now witnessing the accumulation of bitcoins by medium- and long-term holders, future growth is a matter of short-term perspective.

The nearest available options execution date, June 25, identifies several levels as upside targets — starting at 40,000, which is the relative balance between PUT and CALL options, going to 44,000 and ending at 48,000 to 50,000, which are the benchmarks for the recent upward move.

Support levels would be located in the 24 000–26 000, 34 000 and 38 000 range.

On the ETH options market, the situation has not changed much since last week. The range of 2 880–3 520 remains the target for growth, while support is located at 1 440–1 920. The nearest news that could have a stimulating effect on the price increase is the improvement of grid 1559 called London, which is designed to address the issue of high gas prices and is scheduled for mid-summer. The last comparable Berlin upgrade in April 2021 sent the price to new highs around 3 000. Perhaps the situation will repeat itself, only the marks will be even higher.

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