Analytical review. Weekly 13.12.2021
Last week was characterized by increased tensions in the crypto market. At the beginning of the week, the total capitalization index declined to 2.14T. By the middle of the week, we could see a rise to 2.38–2.39T (with a local low around 2.27T between two upturns). By the end of the week, the market fell again to 2.14T. Following consolidation, the total capitalization index stopped at 2.2T.
Responsibility for the current market situation analysts put on bitcoin, the price of which is more correlated with traditional assets daily. The week for BTC began with a fall to the level of 47200. Then, literally within one day, one could observe an increase to the level of 52000. After that, we could again observe a cycle of “rise-fall”. As a result, the overall growth for the week was 2.55%. At the time of publication, BTC is trading in the range of 47000–48000.
The dynamics of the ETH price had similarities with the dynamics of BTC. Falling to 3940 at the beginning, then rising to 4480, and then falling again to 3850. After consolidation, the price practically did not change at the end of the week. At the time of publication, ETH is trading at around 3800.
The dynamics of BTC and ETH balances on exchanges last week remained polar: BTC balance shifted towards withdrawal from exchanges (and almost reached the equality of input and output), and ETH — vice versa.
The same was observed in relation to stablecoins: USDT began to be withdrawn from exchanges more (and in large volumes), and USDC began to be brought in more, although the balance is still in the withdrawal zone.
Talking about the volume of open interest in BTC futures, a slight recovery can be seen at the end of the week. This is still 40% below the November high. Traders are in fear and uncertainty amid expectations that the US Federal Reserve’s stimulus program will wind down. ETH futures open interest is more volatile, but generally correlates well with asset price.
The total capitalization of the DEFI market leaders throughout the week was in the range between USD 90–100B. The P2E game Axie infinity has been dominating for quite some time now. It is hard to say for sure how long this dominance will continue, but it should be kept in mind that the P2E and metaverse industry is clearly far from its peak, and such high-profile blockchain gaming stories as Illuvium are still on the way. Axie is not the only P2E project among the leaders of Defi: the P2E guild of Yield Guild Games is ranked 6th in the ranking with a total capitalization of 5.6B USD. Dex-aggregator 1Inch, which previously closed the top ten, moved to 9th place. Many experts agree that this project still has very large “upside” and “bright” prospects.
For options with the expiration dates in December 2021, the open interest level increased by 4.3% and was 106 625 BTC. The gain was distributed evenly between the Put and Call options. Despite the uncertainty in the market, the number of Call options is still more than double the number of Put options.
The growth rate of open interest in options with the expiration date at the end of the first quarter decreased. The growth was 5.2%, reaching 26 631 BTC. There is a noticeable increase at the level of 50 000 Call.
Market uncertainty was reflected in the overall open interest level for options across all execution dates. It grew by only 0.9% and was 197 696 BTC. The ratio of Call and Put has slightly shifted, Call options have declined in the amount.
For ETH options with the expiration date on December 31, the open interest level increased by 1.8% and was 720 685 ETH. Thus, as we approached expiration, the growth rates fell by more than 4 times. The ratio of Put and Call options remained unchanged.
Trades on options with the execution date in the first quarter of 2022 increased by 1.8% to 393 220 ETH. The Max Pain price has shifted from 3000 to 4000.
The value of the general level of open interest at the end of the week increased by only 3.2% (compared to 11.2% last week) and was 1 692 732 ETH. Call volume is still more than double that of Put, although there has been a slight decline in Calls.
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